It did not take long for life to bring the Detroit Lions down from their high following their shocking win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. On Monday, the team announced that Jared Goff had tested positive for COVID-19, making it unlikely he would be available against the Atlanta Falcons this week.
This news, of course, caused the line to move much like the win over the Cardinals did. Before the Cardinals game, Caesars had the Lions as 6.5-point underdogs to the Falcons. Following the win over Arizona, the line moved to +4.5 Sunday night. Monday saw the line move again, this time to +4.0. But then the Goff news came out.
Goff has not been a superstar this season by any stretch of the imagination. However, his play against the Cardinals was promising. With the Falcons struggling this season, it is not hard to see the version of Goff that showed up against the Cardinals leading the Lions to a win over the Falcons.
With Goff out, it was unlikely the line would remain at +4, and it did not. Tuesday saw it move back to +6 at Caesars. As of Wednesday afternoon, many sportsbooks had the Lions at +5.5 or +6.
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Lions Vs. Falcons Betting Odds
| Sportsbook | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Lions +6 (-110) Falcons -6 (-110) |
Lions +200 Falcons -250 |
Over 43 (-105) Under 43 (-115) |
||
| BetMGM | Lions +5.5 (-110) Falcons -5.5 (-110) |
Lions +195 Falcons -250 |
Over 42 (-105) Under 42 (-115) |
||
| Caesars | Lions +5.5 (-110) Falcons -5.5 (-110) |
Lions +205 Falcons -250 |
Over 43 (-105) Under 43 (-115) |
||
| BetRivers | Lions +6 (-114) Falcons -6 (-107) |
Lions +210 Falcons -245 |
Over 42.5 (-112) Under 42.5 (-109) |
However, there is a chance the line could move again.
Goff is vaccinated, and under the new guidelines, he could return quickly. He needs to be asymptomatic, and his viral load needs to be below a specific benchmark. So, the team will undoubtedly be testing him daily in hopes his number gets to where it needs to be. Otherwise, head coach Dan Campbell will need to start Tim Boyle again.
While they were competitive in his one start against the Cleveland Browns, the offense struggled more than usual with him under center.
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Lions vs. Falcons
Atlanta will enter the game fresh off a 31-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The running game struggled with the 49ers containing RB Cordarrelle Patterson (11 carries for 18 yards). Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is not having a terrible season, but the Falcons’ passing game averages 224 yards per game and lacks star talent at wide receiver.
It is hard to win games when you average 224 yards through the air and 89 yards on the ground.
As for the Lions, if the defense can play like it did last week against the Cardinals, the Falcons offense will struggle. Getting RB Jamaal Williams back will give the Detroit offense an additional weapon, but it is hard to see the offense having much success without Goff.
It might not even have success if he does play. That has certainly been the case in several games this season. However, if the Lions are going to win, their best chance comes with Goff behind center.
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Betting Analysis
If you are thinking of going with the Lions to win, you will want to take the points now. If Goff returns, the spread is bound to go down a point or two. There is a good possibility the Lions lose this game with him, but the Falcons have been on the struggle bus this season, too. Should Goff bring his A-game, the Lions could win this one outright.
At the least, they will keep it close, which gives them a chance to win against the spread.
Our Pick: Lions +6 (but cross your fingers and hope that Goff plays)
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